Revisiting Structural Breaks in the Terms of Trade of Primary Commodities (1900–2020)—Markov Switching Models and Finite Mixture Distributions
Abstract
This paper presents an analysis of the long-term dynamics of the terms of trade of primary
commodities (TTPC) using an extended data set for the whole period 1900–2020. Following our original contribution, we implement three approaches of time series—the finite mixture of distributions,
the Markov finite mixture of distributions, and the Markov regime-switching model. Our results
confirm the hypothesis of the existence of a succession of three different dynamic regimes in the
TTPC over the 1900–2020 period. It seems that the uncertainty characterising the long-term dynamic
analysis of TTPC is better taken into account with a Markov hypothesis in the transition from one
regime to another than without this hypothesis. In addition, this hypothesis improves the quality of
the time series segmentation into regimes.
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